Poll Tracker

Lab: 41%, Con: 33%, LD: 20%

(ICM)

It's so busy organising election campaigns! I will post when I have time...

Poll Tracker

Lab: 38%, Con: 33%, LD 22%

(YouGov)

The Election trundles ever closer...

Liberal Democrat Manifesto

Right, down to business with the second manifesto (in the order in which I have chosen to analyse them). That of the Lib Dems.

First and important thing to note: The title of this manifesto is "The Real Alternative". This sets up from the beginning the aim of the Liberal Democrat party at this election. They need to attract disillusioned Conservative voters in order to make significant advances in their key target constituencies. But of course at the same time, they need to maintain their traditional ties with liberal viewpoints in order to motivate their core vote. A difficult tightrope to walk. And they propose to do this via their three principles: "Freedom. Fairness. Trust."

There are, it appears three main policies that the Lib Dems will pursue in office: Scrapping tuition and top-up fees, free personal care for elderly and disabled people, and switching from council tax to a local income tax.

Health
The free personal care for the elderly is obviously one of the flagship policies of the manifesto, along with the usual tact of promising more freedom for healthcare professionals, less red tape and "treating the sickest the quickest". Catchy.

Education
Abolishing tuition fees and top-up fees. Funded, in part, from the new income tax rate of 50% for those earning over £100,000 per annum. They will also cut the Child Trust Fund (which sets aside a certain amount of money for every child now born) and instead of giving the money directly, will spend it on reducing infant class sizes "from the present maximum of 30 to an average of 20, and junior class sizes to an average of 25". I'm sure you will spot the very slick statistical presentation... An interesting quote from Jim Wallace "In Scotland, thanks to the Liberal Democrats in government, we have already abolished tuition fees, just as we promised". Must again complement the Lib Dems on a very good media operation. No mention whatsoever of the coalition with Labour (the largest party in Scotland) or the fact that fees have been replaced with a graduate tax. In other words, students pay nothing at the time of study, then contribute afterwards at a rate commensurate with their earnings until a certain amount has been paid off. It is curiously almost identical to the system in England that has been legislated for, with the exception of its title.

Crime
They plan to cut the ID card system, and spend the money on 10,000 police and 20,000 Community Support Officers. Also an important point for the Lib Dem / Conservative debate, with the Tories proposing to reclassify Cannabis as a class B substance, while this manifesto promises action on drug trafficking and drug-related offences "rather than criminalising people possessing cannabis for their own personal use". Interestingly, asylum is dealt with under the heading "Justice and Crime," not entirely sure whether might be pandering to the agenda of the Tory party on this issue.

Economy
Apparently, we had been enjoying a stable economy because of Liberal Democrat policies. Although that is all seemingly to change unless we now vote Lib Dem. Who will stick, they say, to Gordon Brown's "Golden Rules". Interestingly as well, a promise to cut spending on "low priorities". A promise to raise the starting point for paying stamp duty from £120,000 to £150,000 also appears. Significant, perhaps, in the bid to attract lower-middle class voters from the Conservatives with something of a targeted tax cut. Also of interest is the fact that the Lib Dem "Shadow Chancellor" (for that is how they describe him, fitting in well with the 'real opposition' tag) is the former Chief Economist at Shell. Possibly an attempt to show that they can be pro-Big Business. Ah yes, and there it is, a promise to cut red tape that "stops businesses from growing".

Pensions and Benefits
Of main interest are promises to increase the basic state pension and introduce a Citizen's Pension for those that haven't paid enough National Insurance over their lives.

Local Communities
The big idea here being the local income tax. This will mean that rather paying a council tax (which is based on the price of your house) people will pay according to where they live and how much they earn. This is costed at £2 billion. In other words, another tax cut. This time to tempt the lower end of the earning spectrum with a typical household said to save "£450 per year"

Foreign Policy
Based in no small part around the Lib Dem's stance on the war in Iraq. But also a promise to increase aid spending from 0.35% to 0.7% of Gross National Income by 2011. Also details of fairer world trade aims, and as is ever present through the document, "Green Action" that they will take in relation to the particular area.

"Stop the Abuse of Power"
Essentially, this is the usual Lib Dem section, popular with the core vote: more parliamentary accountability, boosting local government and considering various methods to "improve and strengthen the UK's democratic systems"

At the end of the manifesto, similarly to the conservative manifesto, is a list of their key policies, titled "10 Good reasons to vote Liberal Democrat," each reason split into what they oppose and what they propose.


Phew! Slightly longer than the Tory manifesto as well, time for a beer or two I think. Once again, have been quite brief with some issues and left others out entirely. If you think anything else is worthy of calling to the attention of the political elite that is the Internet society, then by all means leave a message after the beep. Beep.

Poll Tracker

Lab: 38%, Con: 32%, LD: 21%

(NOP)

By the way, never trust YouGov polls. They are invariably rubbish. Even when right it is doubtless for the wrong reasons.

First Manifesto Out

And as it would happen, it's the Conservative Manifesto that's going to be the first to our shelves. It was actually released yesterday, but being somewhat negligent in my democratic duties, I failed to print, bind and study the blasted thing until this morning. I thought that I might share some thoughts as I read...

The Cover
Seem to have gone for the Tim Stanley approach to writing manifestos. That is, rather brief and scrawled in handwriting at the last minute. I can only presume that it belongs to Michael Howard. Clearly we are to feel personally touched by this man's message. Oh, and inside we find a picture of the mastermind himself. Followed by something of a personal statement. He's wanting to represent the "forgotten majority and their values" apparently. It's probably a phrase that will come up quite a lot during this campaign. Oh, and in case you are wondering, the demographic which this description comprises is stated to be "people who work hard; save to buy their first home; take responsibility for their families". Sounds like a middle class tax cut is on the cards then...

Taxes
Yes, no suprises, we then arrive at a hand-scrawled page consisting of the complaint of rising taxes, and the worry that there is nothing to show for it. I'll save you the lenghty details of the proposal, but they run generally like this: sack 235,000 people from "bureaucratic posts", as well as cutting or abolishing 168 public bodies and freezing civil service recruitment. From this they claim £12 billion of savings will be made. And the plans? £8 billion to go on debt. They will then, apparently, spend £4 billion on tax cuts. This would work out at around £60 per person. If distributed evenly. Which, of course, is not to happen: It seems that the "wrongs" to be corrected are specifically "mortgages and marriage, pensions and petrol, buying a home and having a job". My favourite thing about the section is joining together these two particular quotes: "Today, government is spending too much" ... "we will increase spending by 4 per cent per year". Good stuff. One other quick word about the plans with regard to the European Social Chapter: apparently the Convservatives will be seeking to restore the UK's opt-out of this "job-destroying employment legislation". No doubt this will be a hugely successful policy amongst the business-owning class, as it affords such evils as (if I might Quote the satanic text itself) "equal treatment for men and women," "a right to adequate social protection," "satisfactory health and safety conditions in [the] working environment," and, heaven forfend, "the minimum employment age must not be lower than ... 15 years."

Schools
The next handwritten note complains of wanting a little discipline in schools. Which, you will be gratified to know, the Conservative party intends to introduce. An extra £15 billion for schools by 2009-10 no less. I would set out in exhaustive detail where this money is to come from, but alas, we are not told. Must admit to being somewhat puzzled by this, as it cant be tax rises: these are going down. But it can't be funding from waste savings. That's where the tax cuts are coming from. Ah, favourite quote for the section: "Under Labour, ... Child obesity has risen alarmingly"

Hospitals
Yes there is more money here too. £34 billion in fact. No, don't ask me, I have no idea wherefrom it might appear. Any big ideas? Well here's one "We will introduce health checks for immigrants in order to curb the spread of diseases". Marvellous stuff. This must truly have taken a long and sensible period of planning.

Police
5,000 new officers per year. Some good scaremongering on crime too. I wonder how many people, given the invective hurled by most political parties, would know that crime has actually fallen every year since 1995. Also an extra 20,000 prison places. Not costed. Suprisingly. Favourite quote? "Crime is wrong". Danger: Tory thinktank hard at work.

Immigration Control
"It is not racist" they protest. A sentence which one feels is almost invariably followed by "but"... Other highlights of compassion here include the gem: Britain will "withdraw from the 1951 Geneva convention"

Accountability
The number of MP's will be cut by 20 per cent. Ah it appears that they will also be undertaking a "review of the Human Rights Act". I feel the compassion as a warm and gently breeze blowing unto Britain... And a vote to overturn the ban on Hunting with Dogs

Global Security
The Tories will spend £2.7 billion more than Labour on defence. From their magic fund no doubt. The one that has more money in it after you take some out. Doesn't everyone have one? Aren't they just the best. Add to the list increasing overseas aid spending.

Well there we have it. A fascinating day's work. I've missed off quite a few of the policies, but if anyone has read the blasted thing and thinks anything else is particularly worth noting, by all means make a comment on it!

Well, normal life resumes now, it would seem. I think I will wander to the shops later. Am feeling rather extraordinarily hungry. Perhaps this could become something of a snacky-type evening. Could do with a party actually. Ah well, next term and exams loom ever closer!

Poll Tracker

Lab: 38%, Con: 33%, LD: 22%

(ICM)

A suitable Chant might be "Come on the Reds"

Poisoning Pigeons in the Park

Actually, I have not setting about the poor blighters a la Red Ken. However, it has been a day of Tom Lehrer. I have no particular reason to say this. There is no evidence which I can adduce that might corroborate this statement. However, it has nonetheless, I feel, been a very Tom Lehrer kind of day. Whatever that may or may not mean I cannot say. It was probably the effect of drinking too much tomato Juice. (As an aside, how much can you drink safely?) Not that I am particularly fearing for my life: The Juice is in any case most likely counteracted by that whole Terry's Chocolate Orange which i have also partaken of. The combination has, however, left me ambivalent. In general. And almost unavoidably for the rest of the day.

Just Another Day

Everything is in a state of normality. Despite my apprehensions, the profoundly unseasonable weather appears to have decided to renounce its role as herald of the coming apocalypse. However, there still persists a severe creative drought centred specifically around one area of my life. Academic Work. The very sound of it conspires somehow to drain energy, make one paranoid and even rather wish that the apocalypse would pursue its Earth-bound course with more vigour and less of the appalling lethargic attitude which it has contrived to contract.
But no matter. Instead, I will attempt to settle down into the world of blogging.
It has now been a full 24 days since anything remotely interesting happened. There was the brief possibility of such an occurrence 43 hours ago, but it was found upon closer inspection merely to be a conglomeration of dust on my spectacles. Disappointment followed, but swiftly managed to metamorphose itself into a rather peckish desire for chocolate. Today shall be the culmination of that desire's efforts. For, I shall endeavour today to reach the shops, engage in certain economic transactions, and return home triumphant. No doubt to street-parties and general rejoicing. All seems rather a lot of effort for some milk and chocolate.

The First Post

Well well well. Having been alternatively described as a pivotal breakthrough in democracy and proof that a million monkeys at a million typewriters will NOT produce shakespeare, how could I resist temptation to append myself to this electronic revolution? Indeed, the voluminous piles of paperwork, threatening to topple and engulf me at any moment should they remain unattended for any further period, were merely incidental to my decision to ignore them. The time, as always I feel, is far better spent constructing solid and globally available outpourings as to why exactly I have failed to do any work this week... If blogging acheives this, then it at least relieves me from the onerous task of yelling excuses from my first floor window. I was in any case never entirely convinced that people were focussing on the finer points of my well crafted arguments, tending instead to offer a worried and cursory glance before hurriedly going about their business.